May 13, 1997
President William J. Clinton
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500
Dear President Clinton:
Re. US National Security Threatened by a New Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Countries (AMPEC)
As you know, we Americans now import more than 50% of the petroleum we use. In fact, in 1995 18% of our imports came from the Muslim Middle East alone, and 27% from all the Muslim exporting countries.
Moreover, in 1995 40% of Europes petroleum imports came from the Middle East, and 58% from the Muslim exporting countries. In Japan, 77% came from the Middle East, and 92% from the Muslim exporting countries.
The percentage of World petroleum exports from Muslim countries will, willy-nilly, continue to increase until (perhaps by 2010) the Muslim countries will control nearly 100% of the Worlds petroleum exports. This situation was revealed in my study, The World Petroleum Life-Cycle: Encircling the Production Peak, presented on 9 May 1997 at Princeton University. See especially Figures 2-4 (to be published in the 1997 Space Studies Institute Conference Proceedings - Attachment #1).
Significantly, after reading my SSI paper a French petroleum geologist called and requested a forecast of the year that the petroleum production of the Worlds 19 Muslim countries will exceed the production of all 181 non-Muslim countries. Per my forecast, this cross-over will occur in 1999 (Attachment #2).
At Princeton, I gave the following Thought Experiment:
What if tomorrow Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat met with representatives from each of the 19 Muslim petroleum exporting countries and proposed an entirely new organization called the Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Nations AMPEC for short?
This proposal alone could cause World stock markets to fall 50% in one day. And crucially, it could ignite both (1) a World Petroleum War, and (2) a World Holy War (called a Jihad by Muslims). I view an AMPEC shock as looming likely because powerful Muslim forces are pushing Mr. Arafat (and others) further every day.
Please be advised.
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.
Institute on Energy and Man
BEGIN JESSE HELMS' RESPONSE TO RCD LETTER FOLLOWS:
June 2, 1997
Dr. Richard Duncan
Seattle, WA 98105
Dear Dr. Duncan:
Thank you for your letter concerning the United States' dependence on
I am very concerned by the extent to which the United States has become
dependent on foreign countries to supply its energy needs. The Commerce
Department recently released a report which found that U.S. dependence on
foreign oil has become a threat to national security. The government should
not have allowed its national security to be placed in such a vulnerable
During the 104th Congress, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a
hearing to focus attention on this issue. The hearing also addressed how the
United States should develop natural resources to prevent an international
crisis from interrupting our energy supply. I continue to monitor this
critical issue, and will hold additional hearings as developments warrant.
Thank you very much for writing about this important matter.
Signed Jesse Helms
END OF LETTER FROM JESSE HELMS