| RESOURCE-BASED
PRODUCTION FORECAST |
| Conventional
Oil - Base Case Scenario |
|
|
CONVENTIONAL OIL |
|
|
Mb/d |
| kb/d |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2020 |
BY REGION |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2020 |
| Saudi Arabia |
7524 |
10853 |
13933 |
10897 |
ME-GULF |
18.3 |
25.8 |
31.0 |
24.4 |
| FSU* |
6671 |
5856 |
5141 |
3962 |
EURASIA |
10.4 |
9.1 |
8.2 |
7.2 |
| USA-48 |
3756 |
2828 |
2129 |
1206 |
L-AMERICA |
7.8 |
6.3 |
5.2 |
3.6 |
| Iran |
3447 |
3371 |
3285 |
2657 |
AFRICA |
6.6 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
3.4 |
| China |
3362 |
2688 |
2150 |
1375 |
EUROPE |
6.2 |
4.4 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
| Norway |
3117 |
2166 |
1506 |
727 |
N-AMERICA |
4.6 |
3.6 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
| Iraq |
3100 |
5332 |
6411 |
5044 |
EAST |
3.6 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
| Mexico |
3078 |
2516 |
2056 |
1373 |
ME-OTHER |
3.0 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
| U.K. |
2553 |
1807 |
1279 |
641 |
OTHER |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
| Nigeria |
2068 |
1752 |
1466 |
1027 |
WORLD |
61.0 |
61.3 |
59.8 |
44.5 |
| Venezuela |
2044 |
1844 |
1663 |
1352 |
Non-Swing |
42.8 |
35.6 |
28.9 |
20.2 |
| Abu Dhabi |
1924 |
3099 |
3726 |
3014 |
Swing Share |
30% |
42% |
52% |
55% |
| Kuwait |
1813 |
2714 |
3263 |
2548 |
Swing Countries = ME GULF region |
|
|
| Libya |
1403 |
1661 |
1460 |
1128 |
NON-CONVENTIONAL HYDROCARBONS |
|
| Indonesia |
1227 |
964 |
757 |
466 |
Oil |
|
Mb/d |
| Oman |
940 |
790 |
599 |
344 |
Heavy Oils |
1.3 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
| Colombia |
866 |
642 |
476 |
159 |
Canada |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
| Canada |
1050 |
832 |
659 |
414 |
Venezuela I |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
| Algeria |
804 |
882 |
771 |
590 |
Venezuela II |
0.0 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
| Angola |
800 |
631 |
441 |
231 |
Other |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Egypt |
798 |
578 |
418 |
219 |
Deepwater |
2.2 |
5.8 |
9.1 |
5.7 |
| Argentina |
745 |
501 |
337 |
152 |
G. Mexico |
0.9 |
1.6 |
3.3 |
2.1 |
| India |
694 |
656 |
508 |
305 |
Brasil |
0.2 |
1.2 |
2.9 |
1.0 |
| Malaysia |
686 |
515 |
387 |
218 |
W.Africa |
1.2 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
| Qatar |
609 |
504 |
417 |
285 |
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Syria |
501 |
356 |
254 |
128 |
Polar |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
| N.Zone |
482 |
389 |
352 |
289 |
Alaska |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
| Australia |
454 |
367 |
296 |
193 |
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Yemen |
426 |
398 |
234 |
89 |
|
|
|
| Ecuador |
390 |
312 |
249 |
159 |
Other |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
| Brasil |
386 |
301 |
234 |
278 |
Subtotal |
5 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
| Gabon |
319 |
235 |
174 |
95 |
GAS & GAS LIQUIDS |
|
|
|
| Denmark |
307 |
214 |
128 |
46 |
Gas (by value at 10Tcf =
1 Gboe) |
|
|
| Dubai |
277 |
185 |
124 |
56 |
Gas |
24 |
27 |
32 |
33 |
| Caspian Off. |
255 |
446 |
752 |
1755 |
Non-con gas |
4 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
| Congo |
252 |
228 |
164 |
85 |
Subtotal |
29 |
31 |
37 |
40 |
| Vietnam |
200 |
255 |
223 |
104 |
Gas Liquids |
|
|
| Brunei |
146 |
121 |
101 |
72 |
Condensate/NGL |
7 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
| Romania |
122 |
108 |
96 |
76 |
ALL HYDROCARBONS |
|
|
|
| Trinidad |
119 |
94 |
74 |
46 |
Gas |
29 |
31 |
37 |
40 |
| Cameroon |
115 |
77 |
51 |
23 |
Liquids |
73 |
78 |
82 |
64 |
| Italy |
106 |
101 |
80 |
53 |
Total |
101 |
110 |
119 |
104 |
| Papua |
105 |
103 |
67 |
29 |
|
|
| Peru |
100 |
87 |
75 |
56 |
BALANCE |
with
1.8% annual growth in demand |
| Bahrain |
93 |
58 |
36 |
14 |
Liquids Mb/d |
|
|
| Tunisia |
79 |
63 |
50 |
31 |
Supply |
73 |
78 |
82 |
64 |
| Thailand |
79 |
89 |
61 |
29 |
Demand @ 1.8% |
|
78 |
85 |
101 |
| Sharjah |
74 |
68 |
51 |
28 |
Balance |
0.0 |
0.4 |
-3.1 |
-37.1 |
| Turkey |
64 |
48 |
36 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Netherlands |
55 |
39 |
28 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Germany |
53 |
46 |
39 |
29 |
KEY |
|
|
|
|
| Pakistan |
50 |
38 |
29 |
17 |
*FSU excludes offshore
Caspian |
|
|
| France |
29 |
22 |
17 |
10 |
OTHER = small, new and unforeseen |
|
|
| Bolivia |
27 |
25 |
20 |
14 |
Heavy
Oils = oil from coal, "shale, tarsands & oil <17.5 API |
| Hungary |
23 |
19 |
16 |
11 |
Venezuela I = normal heavy oil |
|
|
| Austria |
20 |
15 |
12 |
7 |
Venezuela II =
4 contracted extra-heavy oil projects |
| Chile |
9 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
(Most
"Other Heavy" included in Conventional due to |
| Albania |
6 |
10 |
16 |
20 |
database limitations) |
|
|
| Philippines |
1 |
63 |
81 |
35 |
ALL INPUT DATA UNRELIABLE |
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