RESOURCE-BASED PRODUCTION FORECAST
Conventional Oil - Base Case Scenario     CONVENTIONAL OIL     Mb/d
kb/d 2000 2005 2010 2020 BY REGION 2000 2005 2010 2020
Saudi Arabia 7524 10853 13933 10897 ME-GULF 18.3 25.8 31.0 24.4
FSU* 6671 5856 5141 3962 EURASIA 10.4 9.1 8.2 7.2
USA-48 3756 2828 2129 1206 L-AMERICA 7.8 6.3 5.2 3.6
Iran 3447 3371 3285 2657 AFRICA 6.6 6.1 5.0 3.4
China 3362 2688 2150 1375 EUROPE 6.2 4.4 3.1 1.5
Norway 3117 2166 1506 727 N-AMERICA 4.6 3.6 2.7 1.6
Iraq 3100 5332 6411 5044 EAST 3.6 3.2 2.5 1.5
Mexico 3078 2516 2056 1373 ME-OTHER 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.0
U.K. 2553 1807 1279 641 OTHER 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Nigeria 2068 1752 1466 1027 WORLD 61.0 61.3 59.8 44.5
Venezuela 2044 1844 1663 1352 Non-Swing 42.8 35.6 28.9 20.2
Abu Dhabi 1924 3099 3726 3014 Swing Share 30% 42% 52% 55%
Kuwait 1813 2714 3263 2548 Swing Countries = ME GULF region    
Libya 1403 1661 1460 1128  NON-CONVENTIONAL HYDROCARBONS  
Indonesia 1227 964 757 466 Oil   Mb/d
Oman 940 790 599 344 Heavy Oils 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.0
Colombia 866 642 476 159 Canada 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Canada 1050 832 659 414 Venezuela I 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Algeria 804 882 771 590 Venezuela II 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
Angola 800 631 441 231 Other   0.1 0.1 0.1
Egypt 798 578 418 219 Deepwater 2.2 5.8 9.1 5.7
Argentina 745 501 337 152 G. Mexico 0.9 1.6 3.3 2.1
India 694 656 508 305 Brasil 0.2 1.2 2.9 1.0
Malaysia 686 515 387 218 W.Africa 1.2 3.0 2.9 2.3
Qatar 609 504 417 285 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Syria 501 356 254 128 Polar 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5
N.Zone 482 389 352 289 Alaska 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
Australia 454 367 296 193 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Yemen 426 398 234 89      
Ecuador 390 312 249 159 Other 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.8
Brasil 386 301 234 278 Subtotal 5 10 13 10
Gabon 319 235 174 95 GAS & GAS LIQUIDS      
Denmark 307 214 128 46 Gas (by value at 10Tcf = 1 Gboe)    
Dubai 277 185 124 56 Gas 24 27 32 33
Caspian Off. 255 446 752 1755 Non-con gas 4 5 5 7
Congo 252 228 164 85 Subtotal 29 31 37 40
Vietnam 200 255 223 104 Gas Liquids    
Brunei 146 121 101 72 Condensate/NGL 7 7 9 9
Romania 122 108 96 76 ALL HYDROCARBONS      
Trinidad 119 94 74 46 Gas 29 31 37 40
Cameroon 115 77 51 23 Liquids 73 78 82 64
Italy 106 101 80 53 Total 101 110 119 104
Papua 105 103 67 29    
Peru 100 87 75 56 BALANCE with 1.8% annual growth in demand
Bahrain 93 58 36 14 Liquids Mb/d    
Tunisia 79 63 50 31 Supply 73 78 82 64
Thailand 79 89 61 29 Demand @ 1.8%   78 85 101
Sharjah 74 68 51 28 Balance 0.0 0.4 -3.1 -37.1
Turkey 64 48 36 21          
Netherlands 55 39 28 15          
Germany 53 46 39 29 KEY        
Pakistan 50 38 29 17 *FSU excludes offshore Caspian    
France 29 22 17 10 OTHER = small, new and unforeseen    
Bolivia 27 25 20 14 Heavy Oils = oil from coal, "shale, tarsands & oil <17.5 API
Hungary 23 19 16 11 Venezuela I = normal heavy oil    
Austria 20 15 12 7 Venezuela II = 4 contracted extra-heavy oil projects
Chile 9 8 7 5 (Most "Other Heavy" included in Conventional due to
Albania 6 10 16 20 database limitations)    
Philippines 1 63 81 35 ALL INPUT DATA UNRELIABLE